The fine-tuned tennis model

Every match has a
break point.

Sportsbooks price tennis with the same one-size-fits-all system they use for every sport. Ours is fine-tuned for tennis and nothing else. When it says a player should win more often than the book's price implies, that gap is your edge — and it pays out on both regular bets and daily fantasy.

Alcaraz C. · RG · QFLive
Our model
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Market line
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The break point
Model edge on Alcaraz
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Best price · DraftKings

That 9-point gap is value the book left on the table. Bet it, or build it into a lineup.

What makes us different

Why a tennis-only model wins

Sportsbooks set prices across dozens of sports with one general system. breakPoint does one thing — tennis — so it can spot the prices they get wrong. That focus is the whole edge.

Generic book line
breakPoint model
Covers
Every sport, one system
Tennis, and only tennis
Built to
Balance the book's risk
Find prices they got wrong
You get
A line to bet against
The real odds to bet with
How it works

Find the gap. That's your edge.

You don't need the math. Here's the whole idea in three steps.

167%

We rate the match

Our tennis-only model weighs dozens of factors — recent form, head-to-head history, and how each player suits the day's conditions — then gives each a real chance of winning.

258%

We check the book

The sportsbook's price points to a lower chance for that same player.

3+9%

You get the edge

The difference is value the book is giving away. Bet it, or build it into a lineup.

Tested on real results

The model is measured against thousands of past matches, so its win probabilities hold up over time.

No spreadsheets

Every edge is calculated for you. Just read it and act.

Only real value

A pick only shows up when the odds are genuinely in your favor.

Bet size included

Each pick tells you how much to stake for your bankroll.

Payout 1 · Sportsbook betting

Bet the gap. Pocket the edge.

The model scans every upcoming ATP & WTA match for lines the book mispriced. You bet where our probability beats theirs — that's where the long-run profit lives.

01

Open the Betting tab

Today's edges, sorted by edge %. Each card is one match where the model found a pricing gap.

02

Read the edge card

Edge %
How far our probability beats the line. +9% means a 9-point gap.
EV+
Expected profit per $1 staked, long run. EV+0.09 → ~9¢ on the dollar.
Confidence
High / Medium / Low — the model's certainty. Start at High.
Kelly
Recommended stake as a % of bankroll. 2.5% of $1,000 = $25.
Book
Which of 13 sportsbooks has the best line for this edge right now.
03

Size it with Kelly

Use the stake on the card. $1,000 bankroll, 2.5% stake → bet $25. Kelly grows your roll while protecting it — don't freelance the size.

04

Place it on your book

Find the match on the listed sportsbook, place the bet, and log it in breakPoint so tracking is accurate from bet one.

05

Track and compound

Individual bets will lose — that's normal. The Performance tab shows your overall profit, win rate, and return. As long as the numbers trend up over time, the model is doing its job. Play the long game.

Edge range
+3% → +12%

Double digits are rare and usually the strongest plays.

Volume
15–25 / day

Across ATP & WTA. Bet the best, skip the rest.

Horizon
The long run

Edge betting pays off over time, not on any single bet. Patience pays.

Payout 2 · Daily fantasy

Same model. Sharper lineups.

The same model that finds our betting edges also projects how many fantasy points each player will score. The lineup builder then puts together your highest-scoring team under the salary cap — tuned differently for cash games versus tournaments.

Cash gamesFloor build

Half the field gets paid. You win by finishing top 50% consistently, so the optimizer maximizes the floor — high-probability favorites with predictable scoring.

  • High-probability favorites
  • Lower variance, steady points
  • Consistency over ceiling
GPP tournamentsCeiling build

Top finishers win big; most of the field loses. You need a high ceiling to break away, so the optimizer adds underdogs who, if they over-perform, vault your lineup to the top.

  • Strategic underdog exposure
  • Higher salary-ceiling usage
  • Differentiation from the field
01

Pick a slate

Choose the DraftKings slate you want to enter. Every available player loads with a model-based projection.

02

Choose your contest type

Cash game (floor) or GPP tournament (ceiling). This sets how the optimizer weighs risk — underdog exposure and salary usage adjust automatically.

03

Generate the lineup

The solver maximizes projected DraftKings points under the salary cap while honoring DK's slot rules and your contest settings.

04

Review and enter on DraftKings

Check the build, regenerate to explore alternatives, then enter it on DraftKings. The optimizer is your research layer; DK is where you play.

Get started

From sign-up to first edge

01

Create your account

Free plan gives you one edge a day — no card needed.

02

Set a bankroll

Pick your budget. Every Kelly stake is sized off it.

03

Follow the edges

Open the Betting tab, read the top edges, place and log them.

04

Track the climb

Watch your profit, win rate, and return grow as you play.

The model is live.
Are you using it?

Every top edge from today's slate is one sign-up away.